August 10, 2001

[paper] Populism and Koizumi Politics

Masakazu Yamazaki

Born in 1934, Mr. Masakazu Yamazaki is a dramatist, a critique, and the President of University of East Asia. He is also a member of the Advisory Board of Genron-NPO. He is the author of "The Era of Great Division (Daibunretu No Jidai)", Truth of History and Justice of Politics (Rekisi No Sinjitu To Seiji No Seigi) and many other works.

The common characteristics of "populism" are that it attempts to win the support of the people by appealing to the baser elements of their nature, such as irrationalism, xenophobia, or jingoism, and uses the emotional power that is generated to attack the establishment. Populism adopts a form of participatory democracy or reflects grass-root voices in politics.

Common political techniques among populists

First, they stimulate people's emotions and appeal to their sentiments rather than to their reason. In addition, the sentiments to which populists appeal usually stimulate hatred and an "us versus them" mentality. Once such angry emotions are stimulated, it is necessary to find an enemy against whom they can be used.
Second, when populists win they start taking matters into their own hands. They bully other politicians, attempt to "reform" institutions by making them serve their own ends, and try to take permanent control over the system, all of which may eventually lead to fascism.

Third, in the process of its formation, populism ignores procedures to realize its ends, process and institutions. On the contrary, populism attacks every institution and procedure as an enemy against its aim.

Democratic politics and populism

Populism can be ironically said as a mutant derived from democracy or democratic political institutions. This can happen because pure democracy has an essentially problematic structure.

We need to realize that fundamental danger lurks in the very democratic institutions themselves. Therefore, it is important for us to create a device to forestall this danger. In particular, direct democracy, or politics wherein a plebiscite is held on every item, is extremely dangerous in that it opens the way to populism.

Place for political debate is bulwark against populism

In a sense that is quite different from direct democracy, political institutions or devices such as the agora of ancient Greece, or town meetings held at the time of the founding of the U.S. and still held in New England, are necessary. In such forums people can gather to hold an assembly in which they can express their emotions, exchange their views and, through the free discussion of pros and cons, can shape their ideas and policies. This was a healthy feature of earlier democracies but in the world of today, and under current democratic institutions, such forums are difficult to find. However, if an intellectually sophisticated forum for political dialogue is organized, it would be a most effective bulwark against populism.

Is Koizumi politics populism?

I do not necessarily think that strong popular support for the Koizumi administration is a manifestation of populism. Rather, the current Koizumi phenomenon is not populism but a mere reversal of people's self-abhorrence.
Thus far, Japanese journalism continues to engage in creating and perpetuating absurdly negative images of the Japanese government and its political leaders. In the case of former Prime Minister Mori, his portrayal in the media was so offensive that his true personality was negated. As a result of such behavior people continue to have negative images of their own governments and leaders.
The strength of the negative images disseminated by the media have made people long for national leaders that were also respectable persons. Therefore, no sooner had the media reported that this time around Japan's leader seemed to be a relatively good person, than public emotion immediately reversed itself. In part, the public's support for and liking of Koizumi is so strong because their loathing of pervious leaders was so deep.

Furthermore, the Japanese people think that Koizumi's reforms make sense and in the course of implementing these reforms, his popularity can lead to a soft-landing somewhere else.

However, when we look at the recent gubernatorial elections, no one can deny that there were signs of populism. If we do not take appropriate measures, such a propensity may yet develop in Koizumi, or appear in some future leader whom we do not yet know.

Therefore, I am looking forward toward a debate on this issue at "Genron NPO."

投稿者 gnpo : 08:10 PM

[paper] How Should the Koizumi Government Resolve the Essential Contradiction?

Jun Iio

Professor Iio is currently a professor of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, GRIPS. He was born in 1962, and received his doctorate in Current Japanese Political Theory from the University of Tokyo. He is the author of The Political

There are several reasons why Koizumi's personal popularity has such a high rate of approval.

In part, it is a reaction to Koizumi's immediate predecessor, Prime Minister Mori, in that the general voters are eager for "a normal democratic politician" at all costs. One phenomenon created by such eagerness was the "quasi-participant consciousness" of many voters in which they shared the challenge of Koizumi as he contested the LDP's presidential election for Mr. Mori's replacement. Prime Minister Koizumi has the motivation and skill to govern (to a point), and has an ability to communicate his appeal directly to the public in general. Further he gives us the impression that, as a politician, he may have ability to embody his own way of thinking. But even if all these attributes are all that he is, he would be just an average politician when judged by the criteria of most developed democratic countries. Since Prime Minister Koizumi keeps on claiming that he will implement major reforms, which would be epoch-making policy under current Japanese political circumstances, he had better not be just an average politician or Japan will be in trouble. Further, Prime Minister Koizumi stands on clearly contradictory ground in that he is attempting to realize structural reforms but his, and the LDP's, base has not been tested as there has not been a general election since the change of leadership.

Now, let's take a look at what measures and effective approaches the Koizumi government can take to resolve Japanese political issues somehow utilizing the currently developing flow of changes.

Three Approaches

The first approach is to create a brief that will support his reforms. The brief should not be full of just formal, empty expression such as "with indomitable will and determination," but should have pragmatic, measurable contents that can be assessed while moving toward reform.

The reason why his reforms appear fragile is the lack of concrete examples that give clear actions, responses, and results, and are based upon his values of reform.

Second, he has to recognize that some features of reform may create a variety of outcomes with different characteristics, and he has to be concerned about the details of their interrelationships. Presently the relationship between "structural reforms and economy" is an important topic, and will be discussed now that the House of Councilors election has been concluded. At any rate, his policy of maintaining reforms even though they may mean economic hardships in the short-term future is a good indication of his determination.

But the factors that rule the economy and structural reforms are not in a simple either/or choice even though they do have a deep mutual interdependence.

Important here is the difference of the time frame between the structural reform and the measures to pep-up the economy. The former has redundancy of time while for the latter timing comes first.

If he pays attention to this, various policies related to the structural reforms can be allowed to have some flexibility in implementation as long as it occurs within a strict framework.

There will be conflicting pressure from those, on the one hand, who promote to proceed with reforms to the point of no return while, on the other hand, those who oppose his reform agenda believe that they can be thwarted, at least insomuch as they can protect their own specific interests, if the speed of reform can be slowed.

But reform plans formed under such mutual antagonism may lack flexibility. In order to solve such a hard problem the reform agenda should specify budget measures and specific amendments to laws, as well as determining the basic direction of reforms by clarifying the standards from which he will derive concrete policy decisions.

Third, he must undertake reforms to the political and administrative systems that will support the economic reforms. The situation of the "bureaucratic cabinet system" has improved significantly, and the absolute positioning of both the Prime Minister and Cabinet are being solidified. The remaining obstacle is the "duality system of government and ruling party" in combination with the "bureaucratic cabinet system."

A parliamentary cabinet system is designed to control the administrative organization through a cabinet composed of the representatives of the ruling political party that attains a majority of seats in the parliament. In this system, the leaders of the ruling party are the government, thus the government and ruling party should be united. In Japan, it is necessary to absorb the ruling party into the cabinet in order to create one institution that holds all responsibilities.

How to Resolve Contradictions in the Koizumi Government

Other than such general issues, there are issues inherent to the Koizumi cabinet. Even though Prime Minister Koizumi has been selected as the president of LDP by an overwhelmingly majority of party members, it is he himself who is creating the essential contradiction in that he is getting his popularity by criticizing the LDP. However, the LDP is not changing its policies and interests, thus the policy direction of the LDP and the Prime Minister's political direction do not necessarily coincide.

This distortion of the parliamentary system can only be resolved if Prime Minister Koizumi controls the LDP, or creates a new foundation for his political power by putting together a support group whose policy is similar to his. This would naturally mean a significant reorganization of the political world. If neither of these two things happen the differences between his support base and their alleged reform direction will cause his reform movement to end as a lot of empty and contradictory slogans. Thus his alternative would be to make use of a bipartisan agreement.

Thorough Debate is Necessary

When Japanese policy is at the stage of "creative destruction," the above-mentioned distortion is indispensable. The contradictions inherent in the Koizumi cabinet must be forwarded to promoting this process. It is at this point that the opposition parties must be posed to take advantage of the situation.

The opposition parties should make common cause with Prime Minister Koizumi because his policies are nearer to those of the opposition party. They must not be overly critical or set unreasonable conditions for cooperation with the Prime Minister simply to be opposed to the ruling party. If the opposition parties do not succeed in using this opportunity to make common cause in areas where their policies and the policies of the Prime Minister coincide, they will continue to be irrelevant and Japanese policy will lose the tension that is driving it forward.

It is hazardous in dual meaning to " Taiseiyokuseikai" and there is some suspicion that Prime Minister Koizumi's sky-high personal popularity may lead to a situation not unlike that under the Japanese national control organization during the Second World War.

There is a danger that freedom of speech and writing will be substantially limited and that the government will develop an attitude that they can practice anything they want to by taking advantage of the situation, and that an organic consensus will also be harmful for reforms.

It is necessary to have questions such as " Why are the reforms significant in comparison with conventional ways?" without which the contents of reform would have no focus.

A healthy clash of opinions is necessary for a policy to be effective.

Only if there is a through discussion regarding the contents of the Koizumi cabinet's reform policies this government have any substantial meaning

投稿者 gnpo : 08:06 PM

[interview] The Future of the Koizumi Administration Viewed in the Context of the Modern History of Japan

Junji Banno: Professor of Department of Laws Economics, the University of Chiba.

He was born in 1937.
Graduated Department of Literature, the University of Tokyo. Doctoral Course in Graduate Course of the Humanities, the University of Tokyo, Held Posts of Assistant Professor of the Women's College of Ochanomizu, and Professor of the University of Tokyo. Recent Work,The Study of Failures of Politics in Japan(Nihon Seiji Sippai No Kenkyu).

1) There is an opinion in contemporary Japan that we should learn a lesson from the policies introduced by the Osachi Hamaguchi Cabinet before WWII; that is, if the Japanese government rapidly implemented structural reform, the Japanese economy would be put into great difficulty. What was the actual situation of Japan at that time?

2) There is a view that the current Japanese economy resembles that in the Showa recession before WWII. In those days, what arguments did Japanese parties dispute? What was Japan's political stance toward moving out of a stagnant economy?

3) According to your opinion, how did the Japanese economy recover from the recession in those days?

4) The current Koizumi Cabinet is said to take after the Fumimaro Konoe Cabinet in 1937. What are the similarities and dissimilarities between the Koizumi Cabinet and the Konoe Cabinet?

5) What lessons should Japanese politics learn from the prewar era in order to successfully achieve the Koizumi reforms?

6) The role of Japan's organs of public opinion in the prewar times has also been disputed. Even today, the mass media in Japan frequently change their opinions or demure from specific solutions in order to follow the trend of public opinion whenever Japan tries to address its difficulties. We think that Japan's organs of public opinion are to blame for this situation and that they should be firmly determined to take strong positions. Would you please tell me your opinion concerning this?

投稿者 gnpo : 08:04 PM

[paper] WHY THE MARKETS CAST DOUBT ON THE REFORMS OF THE KOIZUMI ADMINISTRATION

Paul Sheard: Chief Economist Asia for Lehman Brothers

Born in 1954, Received Ph.D. at the Australian National University. Held positions at Stanford University, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies at the Bank of Japan, Osaka University. Publications include The Crisis of Main Bank Capitalism(Meinbanku Sihonsyugi No Kiki) (which received the Suntory Artistic Award) and Corporate Mega-restructuring(Kigyou Mega Saihen).

The market is anxious about the Structural Reforms of the Koizumi Administration.

The Three Points about which the Market is Anxious concerning the Koizumi Cabinet

The first reason is that the "Basic Guidelines" might hold the same mistakes as the past policies concerning the financial system. At the time that the Emergency Economic Measures were decided on April 6, 2001, the issue of non-performing assets were taken up as the most important problem, and "measures were to be taken" for solution of the problem by the government in a strong manner.

However, in the Basic Guidelines of this Koizumi Administration, the issue of non-performing assets are to "proceed under the voluntary determination of the financial institutions". However, didn't the past ten years lessons show that voluntary handling by the financial institutions did not work under governing of the Financial Services Agency or the former Ministry of Finance.Secondly, the market is anxious because there is no framework for handling the issue of non-performing assets. The Financial Revitalization Committee was abolished this January, and the framework for capital strengthening came to term this March. On the other hand, six days later, it was announced that the issue of non-performing assets was the most serious problem for the Japanese economy, and that this issue would be handled in a concentrated manner. From April 1st, the framework for responding to the financial crisis went into effect, and it is not as if there is no framework at all, but this framework cannot be used unless a financial crisis occurs. In this, it can be said that there is a large blank between the recognition of the severity of the problem and the systemic framework to handle this issue.Thirdly, there is the possibility that the priorities of the policy might become bungled. In the State of the Nation address, Prime Minister Koizumi listed a policy mix of which the first problem was the solution of the issue of non-performing assets, the second as the relaxation of regulations and the third as the restructuring of fiscal policy. This can be held as correct in large measure. However, looking at the actual handling of the problems, the issue of non-performing assets has receded, and the problem of restructuring of the fiscal policy is being held as the first priority. It is clear from the failure of the Hashimoto administration that this policy mix is dangerous. In this manner, this economic policy can be seen as an "Alice in Wonderland" policy.

Two Methods of Structural Reforms

The question is that since such issues are faced by the Basic Guidelines, it is unclear how the larger directions of the policies will go. For structural reform, there are largely two methods. The first is to have the government take a leadership role and proceed within set time limits. Another method is to leave the issue to the market and to reach a form of hard landing.

This author believes that because there is such a strengthening of public participation in these financial issues, the first approach should be taken. However, in actuality, it appears that the course taken is a mix between these two options. In other words, if a crisis occurs, it appears that the direction of former methods which respond to containing the market movements will be taken. However, this method will not solve the issues.If the approach where the government becomes involved in a strong manner temporarily is taken, it may not be possible to avoid the further increase of public funds. However, the Koizumi administration places significance on the restructuring of fiscal policy, and it will not be possible to create such a flow. It looks as if the emphasis on fiscal reform makes it difficult to harden the resolve to step into the issue of non-performing assets in a serious manner.

Escaping from the Bureaucratic Economy

The slogan raised by Prime Minister Koizumi "no economic vitalization without structural reform" is a point that this author has emphasized in past publications. The issue is the order placed on the contents and policy of that slogan. The handling of the issue of non-performing assets should proceed in a strong manner, and to escape quickly from the present bureaucratic economy.

(Translated from original Japanese.)

投稿者 gnpo : 08:00 PM

[talk] Magazine Journalism's Future in a Period of Recession in Discussion and Presentation of Issues

Michikazu Kohno: Editor-in-Chief of Chuokoron, Chuokoron Shinsya Inc.

Born in 1953. Graduated from the Faculty of Letters, Tokyo University. Joined Chuokoron Inc. (the current Chuokoron Shinsya Inc.). Led the successful renewal of Fujinkoron as the Editor-in-Chief. He is now the Chief of Magazine Editorial Room and the Editor-in-Chief of Chuokoron.

Atsushi Okamoto: Editor-in-Chief of Sekai, Iwanami Shoten

Born in 1954. Graduated from the School of Literature, Waseda University. Joined Iwanami Shoten in 1977. Joined the team of the monthly magazine "Sekai(World)", and managed several departments including politics, education, military affairs and environment. In 1996, became the Editor-in- Chief of `Sekai. In 1998, he had an exclusive interview with Kim Dae-jung, the President of Korea.

Yasushi Kudo, the representative of GENRON-NPO, which was launched with an aim to abolish the situation of recession in discussion and presentation of issues, invited Editor-in-Chief of Sekai and Chuokoron to discuss on how magazine journalism can contribute to the Japanese society, which has deepened its level of confusion. They concluded that editors themselves have to struggle with changes in the society and take them seriously.

Yasushi Kudo, the representative of "Genron NPO", which was launched with an aim to abolish the "Recession in discussion of the issues", invited two editors-in-chief from the most prominent general magazines in Japan; "Sekai" and "Chuokoron" to discuss how magazines can contribute to an increasingly confused Japanese society, and how they can develop as a media which leads debate and issues.

Mr. Okamoto started the discussion by pointing out that the current lack of debate and putting forth of relevant issues is changing, especially among the young generation. According to him, events and conditions such as the high unemployment rate, unstable working environment, and changes in international society following September 11 have help bring about this change.

Mr. Kohno of Chuokoron agreed with Mr. Okamoto, and added that a series of events starting with Yasuo Tanaka's victory in Nagano Prefecture governor election, the tense political situation led by Koichi Kato, and the birth of the Koizumi administration in April boosted people's interest to politics and, as a result, have opened the doors to more debate and the raising of significant issues.

Both of them agreed that the past situation situation in which issues were neither raised nor discussed could be attributed to Journalism itself, including the magazine publication industry. Politics, academic circles and journalism are all dominated by masculine language culture and have been using coded, insider language. They both understand that the future mission of magazines is to become more open to the general public, including women.

As for the Koizumi administration's reforms, Mr. Okamoto said "Deflation is a problem of demand. If the Koizumi administration gives priority to financial discipline it will fall into the same trap as did the Hashimoto administration in 1997". He added, "If the Koizumi administration gives priority to a policy of competition based on neo-liberalism, it may lead to an unstable society".

Mr. Kohno said, "The number of young people who do not expect the Japanese economy to reach the level of growth that it had in the past have increased. In this context, even if the government says, "No growth with no reform", the goal of growth will change drastically".

The conclusion of this discussion was that magazines should be more focused on the reality of the nation's problems and meet change head-on, in part by adopting an attitude that raises questions that are significant for Japan.

KUDO(Genron NPO Chief Editor) This NPO was launched to rekindle debate and top bring forth significant issues with an attitude of self-criticism. As these historic international and domestic changes occur, consequent and necessary debate will not occur if we editors do not make our positions clear, as opposed to just remaining neutral, by keeping the discussion one step ahead of the process.

I have invited you two today in order to discuss these issues and to listen to your ideas on this situation. Where do you foresee this debate going and what should be the issues?

Mr. Okamoto, what do you think?

OKAMOTO : I think the public and our readers' attention and seriousness toward debate have increased since September 11.

In terms of economic issues, unemployment has become a huge problem. The unemployment rate has been announced as 5.4% last October but I think it is higher for the younger and above middle-age generation. The problem is quite serious; even those who have a university degree find it hard to get a job, and high school graduates are in a more severe situation.

In this economic situation, all people are seriously considering how they should pursue their lives. During the "Bubble Economy", there was almost no need to deeply think about the society or economy, however, now people have no choice but to think about those them.

One more issue is terrorism and war. The Japanese people's reaction to this issue is completely different than it was to the Gulf War. The Gulf War was in Iraq, far from here, and it was perceived as being a remote situation. Watching the actual act of terrorism on TV it becomes obvious that things have been changing not only in the world but also here in Japan, and people, especially the young generation, begin to understand that this kind of thing could happen anywhere.

The theme of Sekai, November 2001, was "standing against a war of retaliation" and this issue was sold out in three days. It was unprecedented in that it appealed to the young generation and students. Approximately 10 offers came to its authors to lead seminars in university festivals. Seeing these reactions, I think students consider that this anti-terrorism war and succeeding events are relevant to them.

To to deal with the anxiety that is a result of these events, and to answer the fundamental questions on the future of the world is our mission, the magazine's mission. TV, newspaper or the Internet will provide information but it tends to be fragmented. I think magazines, given the number of pages they have, have the ability to deeply pursue events including historical issues. In this context, we cannot only think about the lack of debate and issues it is our responsibility it is our responsibility to meet our readers' interests."Criticism Attenuates in a Narrow World" (KOHNO)

KUDO: Mr. Kohno, what is your opinion?

KOHNO: It was January 2001 when I became editor-in-chief of "Chuo Koron". Prior to this, for six and half years I had been editor-in-chief of "Fujin Koron", a monthly female magazine. At the end of the year, two years ago, there was a search for a new editor-in-chief of “Chuo Koron”, which was attended by scholars, business people and people from public relations firms, who have supported "Chuo Koron". When I was editor-in-chief of "Fujin Koron", I frequently would join the women's meetings. Compared with those, the "Chuo Koron" meetings seemed to be dull. At the "Fujin Koron" meetings women gathered and talked with each other at the center of the hall. They dressed beautifully; they were powerful and lent gaiety to the hall.

On the other hand, at "Chuo Koron" parties men wore dark business suits. Most of them were standing near the wall with a whisky-and-water in their hands. When somebody made a speech, they listened to him and clapped their hands but nobody gathered at the center of the hall. Looking at this, my heart sank at the thought that I had to return to this sort of world. Then, I was asked to make a speech as the next editor-in-chief of "Chuo Koron", I frankly said what I had felt at the hall. In short, when I compare men with women, men seem to be inertial. When I thought of the fact that the press is dominated by men, I couldn't but think of how I should change the atmosphere of a man-dominated world.

When I moved to the editorial division of "Chuo Koron", I reviewed of who had written for this magazine and who have read it. Writers have not yet changed much compared with six years ago when I was there, whereas the readers' average age has gone up and I was not able to get young readers. I thought the world of criticism attenuated and closed.

During the period from October to November of 2000, Tanaka became governor of Nagano Prefecture and the former LDP secretary-general Koichi Kato attempted a revolt in the Diet, which gave me an impression that things had started to change gradually. However, after the failure of Kato’s revolt until the Upper House election of last July, I asked pundits what would have happened. Their answers were "nothing would happen", so I am not sure why the volcanic energy of people erupted.

The birth of the Koizumi government is, in my view, the starting point of what happened in the previous six months. With the inauguration of the Koizumi government, people have been more given to express their opinions. The Koizumi administration was born with the birth of the Tanaka administration in Nagano Prefecture and the revolt of former LDP secretary-general Kato.

Critics have said that the popularity of Koizumi is a bubble, but even if that is true it has engendered a huge change in that people became interested in politics for the first time.We Need Innovative Rather than Stable Magazines (KOHNO)

KUDO: I agreed with Mr. Kono. That is, magazines tend to depend on celebrities or leading figures. I think there is a question concerning how magazines should be, which embraces the issue of looking for new voices.

OKAMOTO : If we could answer that question easily, our jobs would be easy. Frankly speaking, I am also working hard in this respect.

However, there are an increasing number of young writers in "Sekai" and "Chuo Koron". There are still writers in their 60s and 70s, nevertheless, there are also a fair number of writers in their 30s and 40s. Whether the increase of young writers to our magazines leads to an increase in young readers is unknown.

As Mr. Kohno said before, general interest magazines are considered to be old hat; their readers are mainly old men. Some are content with this status quo and target only middle-aged men. These days women have money and time and are capable of thinking, speaking, and creating networks. How can we form a relationship with such women in their 20s and 30s?

There are six staffers in the editorial division of "Sekai", out of them two are women. I would like to treasure their input into our work but I have not done as good a job as I should have.

KUDO: Mr. Kohno, how are you going to find new writers for your magazine?

KOHNO: I have told the staffers of our editorial division that we should not choose writers based on such factors as celebrity or the number of books they have written.

It doesn't matter if a writer is old or young, male or female, as long as he or she tries to challenge us new with ideas. We welcome those who have written for us in the past but also seek new writers. Editors have also been conservative and stuck with the same old themes and so, along with the discovery of new writers, we must also seek new themes. Traditionally we ask this writer to write on a theme, or another to write with a different take, and by doing so we may have a degree of success. However, I proposed to our staffers that we should stop doing things in the traditional, conventional way and be more concerned with the credibility of the magazine. The problem is to what extent readers care about the continuity of our magazine and their evaluation of our writers. I think readers want those writers who have new ideas and new style of writing. Therefore, we editors should not hesitate in these regards.

We cannot assume that such an approach will always succeeds, sometimes it does and sometimes it does not, but we must proceed through trial and error.Dualism No Longer Makes Sense (OKAMOTO)

KUDO: If readers have some doubt about which they want to read and we editors are aware of the issues and challenges to them, if we just show them the various opinions, we will fail.

Whether it is "Sekai" or "Chuo Koron", these two time-honored magazines have embraced various arguments. Ideological conflict became less important with the end of the cold war, terrorism recently has been of obvious importance, and due to the rebound of globalism the U.S. has come to a turning point. Japan has not been able to find a new way after the demise of its post-war system. The large number of its bad loans has put it on the verge of collapse. Given these circumstances conventional arguments will just leave us stuck in a static state.

With what sort of awareness of issues should we discuss matters with our writers and nurture them? This is, in a sense, is related to the origin of magazines. What is the editorial division of "Sekai"'s take on this?

OKAMOTO : "Sekai" was inaugurated at the end of 1945, that is, the magazine started with the inauguration of the post-war system. About a half century has passed since its inauguration. "Chuo Koron" and "Bungei Shunju" have much longer histories than our magazine. The difference between our beginnings and theirs, however, is that we started seeking the answers to why the war took place and why it was not stopped. That is why Mr. Shigeo Iwanami inaugurated this magazine. This is the soul and origin of our magazine. If we do not understand these points, it makes no sense to continue publishing our magazine.

However, it doesn't mean that we should continue to follow an old tradition. As Mr. Kudo mentioned, the cold war ended ten years ago. The dualism which was dominant during the cold war period no longer makes sense. After September 11 the world has changed again, although it is still not clear how or to what extent it has changed. People around the globe have just started discussing this matter. I am sure the world will change drastically. At a time such as this, what sort of society should we build in Japan or in East Asia? Certainly, the question includes every aspect such as economy, security, environment and so forth. I would like this awareness to frame my thinking.

It is a tough question and our editorial division continues to debate it. So, sometimes I think I need to give direction how to edit a particular issue. Without a clear direction in editing, magazines will not appeal to the readers. Hence, setting direction is one of an editor-in-chief's most important jobs.Try to Always Cast Questions to Public (KOHNO)

KUDO: How about Mr. Kohno?

KOHNO: regarding the stance of a magazine, it is hard to say in the case of "Chuo Koron". We have not yet reached a conclusion as to whether our magazine is just a general interest magazine or opinion magazine. In our company opinions are varied. It is true that in the past we have edited our magazine by handling various arguments about a variety of themes, as if it is a mirror on society. However, the circumstances have changed and what contemporary times requires has changed. A general interest magazine also needs to change. I suppose we need to prepare a clear mission for our magazine. We can not draw a clear conclusion even if we discuss the identity of "Chuo Koron". Therefore, every editor-in-chief must take the lead on his/her responsibility.

The other day an owner of a bookshop gave me an idea to increase our magazine’s sales. That is to edit our magazine in such a way that issues are explained in a different way, from oblique angles, for example, as if you were asked by somebody else. If we change our magazine in such a way, people will definitely read our magazine.

This leads to another important matter. Thus far, our discussions have tended to be by and for "experts". We have constrained ourselves within this world, thinking that if we broadened our scope to the more common world, people would disdain us. The academic world and world of critics are narrow and essentially male. We may need to open our magazine to women and laymen.

Now, we are attempting to draft a preamble of a dream constitution with Mr. Hideshi Otsuka, a critic, as its exponent. We started this plan with the active involvement of our readers. Regardless of the pros and cons of the Constitution, this trial and error is very interesting. We have already received about 150 ideas from our readers, some of which are very unique. As a magazine, we would like to call upon and speak to the public. The Koizumi Reforms are Biased Toward the Corporate View (Kohno)

KUDO: When judged schematically, "Sekai" and "Chuo-Koron", as well as "Toyo-Keizai" for which I worked, are considered to be liberal. On the other side there are some magazines that would assert with straight emotions such anti-America or anti-China opinions. These magazines sometimes sell substantially.

Looked at from another angle, we might say that after the collapse of the ideological confrontation, the appeal of arguments put forth by liberal magazines might have been weakened. In other words, their arguments were abstract, still tainted with ideology, and were not grounded in reality when the business world and everybody's life had been changing rapidly and drastically. We have sympathy for a self-reliant society with individualism and personalism. However, we also hope to serve society and promote social welfare. So, where does the discussion go from here? I would like to ask you this in the context of the Koizumi revolution.

OKAMOTO: I agree with you on your observation that the appeal of such arguments might have been weakening. I think, however, that one of the causes of this might be their dependence on the formalized relationship between magazines and their readers. Also such arguments might have been made using specialist language that would only be understood within the press business. You might say that these arguments were made by specialists and could not be followed by average readers. This phenomenon can be observed not only in magazines but also in newspapers or in the world of politics. The reasons why arguments are not broadened should be looked for not only in our own attitudes but also in the overall social background.

With regard to the Koizumi Reforms, originally we could not clearly understand its meaning but now it is clear that this Reform is basically in line with the economic reform policies of neo-liberalism. Of course reform should deal with problems linked to specific public corporations, the financial resources dedicated to road construction and public works in general. But with regard to economic policies, I think the Koizumi Reforms are too focused on strengthening corporate side (supply side). The reasons for the current recession lie rather in the demand side. That is, consumption, not production, is too weak. In such a situation if we are biased toward strengthening corporations, social welfare expenses will be reduced, unemployment will be in danger of increasing and pensions might not be paid in the future. Under these conditions consumer spending will decrease, just the opposite of what is intended. We cannot stop the deflation spiral by such measures.

In 1997 the Hashimoto Cabinet, following the scenario written by the Ministry of Finance, increased the consumption tax rate and increased the burden of medical expenses. This, along with other similar policies, caused a sudden cooling of the economy that resulted in the failure of Mr. Hashimoto’s financial reform policies. I am very much afraid Mr. Koizumi will repeat this tragedy.An increasing number of youngsters do not want economic growth (KOHNO)

KUDO: There are diverse opinions on the Koizumi Reforms among the specialists of economics and his plans for political reform are not clear. One of the most discussed issues today is the advance assessment of draft bills by the ruling party. Laws and policies are formed by the Policy Research Committee or by other sub-committees of the LDP rather than by the Cabinet. Both Cabinet and Diet are reduced to mere formal status. The LDP will ferociously attack anyone who says that advance assessments are not necessary.

If one takes England as the ideal for parliamentary cabinet systems, there the ruling party and the government are unified and the members of the cabinet and the leaders of the party are the same. The Japanese parliamentary cabinet system clearly has defects.

Given that this is the case, it is worrying that voters still elect such politicians. Because we elect interests-adjustment type of politicians, committees are required in order to adjust interests there. Solutions to contemporary problems cannot be found only by discussion in Nagata-cho. As Mr. Kohno pointed out, we have to become aware of the viewpoint of the people and we should start expressing our opinions.

KOHNO: It is really painful that we can not see a clear future for this country. I'll soon be 50 years and when we reach such an age we don't want to be worrying about these things but have a continuity that allows us to live tomorrow as an extension of yesterday. However, younger people must be feeling the pain of our current situation. They must be seriously worrying about this country's future and what kind of happiness will they be able to enjoy when they reach their 30s or 40s. In speaking with younger people, they express such ideas or opinions as: "I do not care much about economic growth" or "I do not expect our country to be more than average." When we take such observations into consideration, the policy of "no restructuring, no growth", is called into question when there is less expectation for growth.

KUDO: As you say, it would be impossible to set regaining the economic growth rates of the past as a goal of the Reforms, or to maintain the current size of the economy. The values of the young generations are changing and they are looking for a different way of life and different lifestyles. These may lead to new visions of Japan as a nation.

KOHNO: Looking at today's international environment, Chinese economic power is rapidly growing, and last fall's terrorist incident have created an unrecognizable world. Even though we are in such a period of drastic changes, we can’t say that Japan has made it clear how we should manage the nation nor has it created a national strategy upon which we can build priorities. We can’t expect much from politicians in terms of developing the vision needed for nation-building, nor can we expect that they can educate people who would work for the realization of such visions.

Although Koizumi talks about politics in his own words, we don't think these words are sufficient to create dreams in young people that are necessary for nation-building. Therefore, getting people who have so far not spoken out, and those who are seriously worried about the nation’s future, to express their opinions should be the goal of general magazines as well as specified opinion magazines.We can't confirm changes if we don't get out and look for ourselves.(KOHNO)

OKAMOTO : There was a mention about a strong sense among the young people that "We do not need further growth." Such a change must have come from the fact that as the de-regulation of labor has progressed, unstable part time employment, such as "freeters" or dispatched workers, has been increasing; resulting in lower wages and concerns for an unstable future. In such a situation it is impossible for them to understand why they have to pay into the pension fund or why they should take co-responsibility with the older generation in cost sharing. When the society does not exert its responsibility toward young people, how can you expect young people to bear responsibility towards society? We have some student part time workers at our office. They do not assume responsibility for “Sekai”. A rapid increase in the number of such people means a rapid decrease in the number of those who bear the work with true responsibility. This phenomenon is already popular in the US, but Japanese policies have also been progressing in this direction. If such a trend continues, the society as a whole might be weakened within 10 years.

I do not like Yoshinori Kobayashi and the only thing that he says with which I agree is that the sense of "civic duty" has been rapidly declining. While mistake of Mr. Kobayashi is that he ascribes this to the people of the nation, I think those who most lack this sense of "civic duty" is the bureaucrats, i.e., those who are in charge of changing the nation. Be it BSE issues, AIDS, or the Kawabe River Dam, they cannot but accept criticism for not having done their duties at all. Everybody wonders what he or she pay taxes for.

We must work for ourselves to live, but at the same time we should also work to do something useful for other people and the society as a whole. If we do not create a situation in which we share our responsibilities and only competition and survival prevails, the society will become quite unstable and dangerous. We already face an increase in crime. Such a trend could lead to fascism, we cannot be sanguine about this..

KUDO: For example, we can carry out public works by accumulating long-term debts because we expect benefits for the future generations. But actually there might be a possibility that the future generations do not want these. It is the same in the case of pension funds. There is little confidence that the current political system can solve this problem.

OKAMOTO : I am sometimes invited to local gatherings to give lectures, where I meet bosses of the local shops, bosses of small size enterprises or farmers, who are seriously worried and suffering. Such people who live with their feet on the ground do not believe in public works anymore.

They used to think that it was good if such public works provided money to local businesses. But the situation is different now. If roads and bridges are constructed, it might only result in increasing debts, they think. This leads them to think seriously about how they should live locally. Although the correct answers to these questions are not easy to come by, they try their best and do various experiments. Their backs are against the wall.

KOHNO: I think it very important, as Mr. Okamoto pointed out, to have opportunities to get out and see what is happening for ourselves. As the chief editor of a magazine who also works as a manager, he is busy with various jobs and rarely has the chance to get out and talk with people on the ground. Our ideas are rarely expanded by meeting with chief editors or colleagues with other publishing companies. When we incidentally meet, we quite often do no more than only meaningless exchanges of views like how circulation is going. However, as Mr. Okamoto mentioned, if we go out and meet street vendors or farmers and listen to them then we might steadily find new ideas, or confirm actual changes now under way.

KUDO: We would have to move around more, listen to other people's opinions, and raise good opinion leaders. Thus we ourselves would have to fight against the era and worry seriously. I sincerely wish you both well as chief editors.
Thank you very much for your time today.

投稿者 gnpo : 07:50 PM

[talk] Will the Structural Reforms of the Koizumi Administration Succeed?

Nobuyuki Saji: Chief Economist, Mizuho Securities

Second rank in the Institutional Investor, The All-Asia Research Team Ranking. Born in 1958. Graduated from Kansai Gakuin University Legal Studies Department. After a stint at Nikko Research Center Investment Strategy Director, he took on his present duties. Publications include The Japanese Economy Read by the 'Economic Cycles'(Keiki Junkan De Yomu Nihon Keizai) (co-author).

Robert Feldman: Chief Economist of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Securities

First ranking in the Institutional Investor, The All-Asia Research Team Poll. Born in 1953. Graduated from Yale University and received Ph.D. from MIT (in Economics). Held positions in the New York Federal Reserve and the IMF before taking up present position. Publications include The Vulnerability of Japan(Nihon No Suijaku) and The Revitalization of Japan(Nihon No Saiki).

How is the Koizumi administration going to conquer the difficult issue of structural reform while the economy stagnates?

Is there a strategy written to combat this issue? Or will it be impossible to overcome the old forces with the reforms to end in submission? Two popular economists debate over the whereabouts of the Koizumi reforms.

The main issues are as follows.

1. The Elements of the Japanese Economic Stagnation
2. How are the Bone Strengthening Guidelines to be evaluated.
3. Will the Koizumi reforms become a repeat of the Hashimoto reforms?
4. Have the policies for non-performing assets receded?
5. Can the financial system reforms be realized based on the self sufficiency of the private sector?
6. Is the strategy for the Koizumi reforms mapped out?
7. How do we consider the debate that policies for the stagnating economy are necessary?
8. Will there be an economic crisis after the Upper House elections?
9. Will the Koizumi reforms be like Thatcher's or like Gorbachev's?

投稿者 gnpo : 07:46 PM

[paper] Gist of the Koizumi Cabinet's Structural Reform

Haruo Shimada: Professor, Keio University, Economics Department and the member of experts study group of The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy

Professor, Keio University, Economics Department and the member of experts study group of The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy. Current Employment and Position: Professor, Keio University, Economics Department and the member of the special committee of The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy. Year of Birth: 1943. Education: 1967 MA in Economics, Graduate School, Keio University 1974 Ph.D. in Industrial Relation, University of Wisconsin. Publication:Scenario of a New Japan(Sinsei Nihon No Sinario), "Consumert Industries Will Save Japan(Seikatutyokketusangyo Ga Nihon Wo Sukuu)", "Japan's Re-emergence Plan(NIhonsaihujyo No Kousou)" and many other books. He has a great influence over the Koizumi cabinet's economic policies as a member of the special committee of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy. Recently he visited the US as a special envoy for the Prime Minister to prepare for the latest Japan-US summit talk.

There is some possibility that if the disposal of non-performing loans and other negative structural reforms alone are implemented, it may impose a threat of deflation on the Japanese economy, cool down consumer confidence and cause a downward economic cycle. To stave off these negative impacts, positive structural reforms must be implemented as a means to create employment.

In order to bring about these positive structural reforms, it will be necessary to do something that has not been done for thirty years, restructure the labor market and reform the regulations pertaining to it. If that restructuring succeeds, the Japanese way of working and living will change dramatically. The significance of the Koizumi cabinet's reforms is that they will both improve our daily lives in the short term and solve fundamental, long-term problems.

Currently, movement toward the reforms is gaining momentum. During our national debate concerning how our history had changed, a man appeared saying, "I will change history", and announced the guidelines for his economic strategies. Japan has been in a position in which the postwar economic system has ended, but without a new system to replace it. The structural reforms of the Koizumi administration will bring about those necessary, full-scale changes to the economic structures that are so badly needed. The objectives of the reforms are to make Japan into a country with a government and economy that are suitable for a developed country, and to ensure that people can enjoy a sense of security and affluence in real terms. This is what the Koizumi cabinet's structural reforms are all about.

投稿者 gnpo : 07:45 PM