Third Japan-China Joint Opinion Poll - Japan

Third Japan-China Joint Opinion Poll ( PDF )

　This article reports on the Japanese survey results. As with the previous two surveys, intellectuals in Japan completed a questionnaire at the same time as the opinion poll was held this year.

　[Note: The opinion poll included men and women aged 18 or older throughout the country, excluding senior high school students. The poll was conducted by delivering questions by hand to individual homes and collecting them later, and there were 1,000 valid responses. Details on the 1,000 respondents are as follows. Sex: men 48.5%, women 51.5%. Age group: 18 and 19 years old, 2.2%; 20-29 years old, 14.8%; 30-39 years old, 17.0%; 40-49 years old, 15.0%; 50-59 years old, 18.5%; and 60 and older, 32.5%.

　When it came to the questionnaires for intellectuals, we picked 2,000 people from all who had participated in previous Genron NPO discussions and surveys. The questionnaires were mailed out, and responses were received from 300 individuals. As for educational background, 74.0% had undergraduate degrees and 19.6% had graduate degrees for a combined total of 93.6%. This illustrates the average academic background among intellectuals working in Japanese society, and our intention was to add their responses to supplement the opinion poll.]

　Genron NPO, China Daily, and the Peking University School of International Studies not only publish the survey results every year, but also agree to reflect upon the results in discussions during the "Beijin-Tokyo Forum" to help narrow communication and recognition gaps between people in the two countries, and contribute to mutual understanding.

　The last survey was the first opinion poll since Japan-China summit meetings resumed in October and the heads of both countries visited each other, so it is the only evidence at this time to learn how much mutual understanding has deepened and how perceptions have changed since the summit meeting last year.

　The questions in the opinion poll were jointly drawn up by Genron NPO and the Peking University School of International Studies after detailed discussions.

Direction interaction with China, sources of information about China

　Among all respondents to the poll, only a little over 10% (13.5%) have visited China. Meanwhile, 80% of the intellectuals (81.9%) have visited China, and the figure has been gradually increasing over the last three years.

　In the opinion poll, over 80% (84.3%) answered that they "don't know anyone in China." Among the intellectuals, when combining "have close acquaintances or friends" and "have acquaintances or friends to talk with to some degree," the figure was 71.0%.

　The general public's perception of China is formed through indirect experience, or in other words depends on information in the media in their own country. In the poll, about 90% (91.3%) answered "Japanese news media" was their source of information for understanding China and Japan-China relations. The main source of information among intellectuals was also primarily Japanese news media (84.7%) though their sources of information are more diverse than among the general public. Television was the most popular Japanese news media among the general public at 78.1%, and newspapers for intellectuals at 55.9%. A minority of people rely on the Internet for such information.

　However, the poll showed that less than 30% of people (29.3%) consider Japanese news media reporting on China and Japan-China relations to be objective. When combining "subjective reporting from Japan's standpoint" (18.3%) and "reporting emphasizing conflicts between the two countries" (17.6%), more than 30% of people questioned the objectivity of the media. Such suspicions are even stronger among intellectuals: when combining "subjective" (22.0%) and "emphasizing conflicts" (33.0%), the percentage is over half at 55.0%.

Basic understanding of China and Chinese people

　The average Japanese person's understanding of China comes only from things that arise during everyday life, and understanding of the Chinese political system including socialism remains basic. Impressions still remain regarding the anti-Japan demonstrations in 2005 and other incidents that dominated Japanese news headlines. All opinion polls over the last three years show the same situation.

　Meanwhile, when intellectuals think about China the top-ranked topic is "economic growth, overheating economy" at 52.3%. "Asia's core, major future power" was also high at 22.7%, illustrating that people are interested in recent economic developments in China.

　As for current dominant political concepts about China, "socialism, communism" comes first among the general public at 75.2%, followed by "militarism" at 35.5%, "great-power ambition" at 33.3%, and "totalitarianism (one-party dictatorship)" at 27.4%. There have not been any major changes in the last three polls. "Pacifism," "international cooperation" and "democracy" rank much lower at around 5% each.

　"Great-power ambition" comes first among intellectuals at 65.3%, followed by "totalitarianism (one-party dictatorship)" at 51.0%, and surpassing "socialism, communism" at 45.7%.

　Among Japanese impressions of Chinese people's characteristics, those that stood out were diligent, aggressive, stubborn, untrustworthy, insincere, non-creative, nonconformist, and selfish, with such answers commanding much higher percentages than positive ones.

Perceptions of China and Japan-China relations

　Japan-China relations have turned around and improved over the past year since summit meetings resumed when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited China in October 2006, and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Japan in April this year. Relations between the two governments have begun to advance. The recent poll surveyed this trend.

　The results show that more than half of Japanese today still have negative images about both "impressions of China" and "Japan-China relations." A declining trend that continued until last year finally stopped, but it has yet to turn better.

　Intellectuals who interact heavily with Chinese have dramatically improved their impressions not only of China but in particular Japan-China relations over the last year, and improved relations between the two governments are thought to have influenced their impressions.

　However, when looking only at the opinion poll, there was no visible effect regarding any improvement in perceptions of China or any result from the recent visits by the respective heads of states.

　Nearly 70% of Japanese public have a negative impression of China.

　Meanwhile, 54.3% of intellectuals have a positive impression of China, nearly balancing those with a negative image at 45.6%, indicating a split view.

　As for reasons why Japanese people have a negative impression of China, "It often criticizes Japan in regard to history and other issues" comes first at 61.7%, followed by "It appears to be self-centered in gaining access to resources, energy, and food" at 42.4%, "Different way of thinking and culture" at 38.0%, "It is building up military capabilities" at 32.6%, and "The future of Chinese politics and its economy are unclear" at 29.1%.

　When polling current Japan-China relations, even if "very good" (0.2%) and "relatively good" (6.3%) are combined, that is only 6.5%. Meanwhile, negative views account more than half when "not very good" (47.9%) and "not good at all" (5.2%) are combined. When looking at opinion polls for the last three years, evaluations of Japan-China relations are slightly improving but people with "negative" views still largely surpass ones with "positive" outlooks.

　Among intellectuals, respondents who thought Japan-China relations are "not very good" accounted for 41.3%, down more than 20 points, yet that was still the most common answer.

　The next question in the opinion poll was whether impressions of China have improved or deteriorated over the last year. The percentage of people who answered "slightly improved" grew about 10 points, showing signs of progress. Nevertheless, even if "considerably improved" at 1.7% is added, that totals only 18.8%. Meanwhile, though the percentage of people whose impressions deteriorated over the last year declined from the previous poll, the total still reaches 27.1% when combining "slightly deteriorated" at 21.7% and "considerably deteriorated" at 5.4%.

　In contrast, there was marked improvement among intellectuals with improving impressions over the last year accounting for 24.3%, outstripping worse impressions at 15.0%

　As for whether their evaluation of Japan-China relations had changed over the last year, "not particularly changed" was the top answer in the poll at 61.6%.

　Among intellectuals, people who saw "improved" relations over the last year soared to 64.3%, a markedly positive response compared to the general public.

　Regarding the importance of Japan-China relations, 73.8% of people think they are “important” or "somewhat important" in the opinion poll (72.6% last year). Meanwhile, 98.7% of intellectual consider them to be important (97% last year).

　Nearly half, or 47.2%, of the general public thinks that Japan-China relations are as important as Japan-U.S. relations (23.4%) or second-most important next to Japan-U.S. relations (23.8%), and the corresponding combined figure for intellectuals is 74.4%.

Resumption of Japan-China summit meetings

　In regard to Abe's visit to China last year and Wen Jiabao's visit to Japan this year, only 36.2% of the general public "expect" such summit meetings to contribute to improvements in bilateral relations even when combined with "somewhat expect." On the other hand, 32.9% of people "don't expect" or "somewhat don't expect" it. Results among intellectuals were in sharp contrast at 77.7% when "expect" and "somewhat expect" were combined.

　The top three issues that the general public wants to have discussed at summit meetings are "North Korean issues including nuclear development and abductions" at 35.1%, followed by "strengthening cooperation for energy conservation and environmental issues" at 17.5%, and "history issues" at 9.9%. Among intellectuals, "strengthening cooperation for energy conservation and environmental issues" topped the list at 38.7%, followed by "strengthening economic relations" at 13.3%, and "North Korean issues including nuclear development and abductions" at 11.0%.

Recognition of various issues between Japan and China

China's future influence and Japan-China relations; and resource and energy issues

　This section sheds light on how Japanese people look at three topics common to Japan and China. The first is "Will China’s economic and political influence grow in the future?" In response, 57.4% of the general public and 81% of intellectuals think it will, with both figures higher than last year.

　The second question was "Are current economic relations between Japan and China friendly ones benefiting both countries, or competing ones that threaten each other?" People in the poll who viewed them as "threatening each other" accounted for 43.2%, or nearly half, and people who thought they are "friendly ones benefiting both" accounted for only 28.9%. In contrast, intellectuals who viewed them as "friendly ones benefiting both" made up 71.4%.

　As for the last issue of China strongly pushing to get control of resources and energy, people who thought "efforts should be made to solve the issue through dialog" accounted for 64.7% among the general public, and 80.7% among intellectuals, with both showing strong majorities. Meanwhile, the percentage people who thought "Japan should secure its national interests to compete with China" totaled only 16.9% among the general public, and 16.6% among intellectuals.

Japan's aspirations to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council

　Regarding Japan's aspirations to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, 46.7% of the general public thought "Japan should become a permanent member along with China," along with an overwhelming 77.3% of intellectuals.

Japan-China relations and history issues

　As for Japan-China relations and the issue of perceptions of history, "Even if Japan-China relations develop, it would be difficult to solve history issues" was the top answer at 33.2%, which is the same result in the last two opinion polls.

　This year, however, "As relations between Japan and China develop, history issues will also be gradually settled" rose 4.6 points from last year to 30.2% among the general public. Such an optimistic view is more prevalent among intellectuals at 56.3%, rising from 52.3% last year.

　Regarding what historical issues should be settled, "Japanese prime ministerial visits to Yasukuni Shrine" ranked top among the public, just like last year.

　As for prime ministerial visits to the shrine, only 20.9% of the public think "he should not visit either officially or privately," 29.3% said "he can visit as prime minister," and 34.4% feel "he can visit privately." In contrast, "he should not visit either officially or privately" came first at 62.3%.

Is China a military threat?

　North Korea is the viewed by the general public as the primary military threat at 81.4%, followed by China at 35.4%. However, while responses for North Korea rose from last year, China dropped 7.4 points. Russia came third at 16.9%.

　As for why they feel China is a threat, "Chinese military will likely continue growing in the future, becoming a threat in the near future" accounted for the most responses at 56.2%, followed by "China often trespasses in Japanese waters" at 46.0% and "China has nuclear weapons" at 44.9%.

Future Japan-China relations and Asia

　People who thought that Japan-China relations it will "improve" or "somewhat improve" in the future accounted for 40.9%, substantially higher than those who thought they would deteriorate. Much of the general public is optimistic about the future of Japan-China relations, and the same thing can be said for intellectuals.

　As for goals for relations, "cooperate for economic development in Asia" accounted for the most at 51.0%, followed by "both contribute to the world as representatives of Asia" at 48.3%, and "Japan and China take a leading role to develop Northeast Asian security to combat North Korean and other issues" at 38.7%. Regarding what values Japan should promote in Asia, "nuclear-free, pacifism" was highest among both the general public and intellectuals at 39.0% and 28.0% respectively, followed by "respect for people to live humanely" at 21.0% among the general public and 25.3% among intellectuals.