Third Japan-China Joint Opinion Poll - China

Third Japan-China Joint Opinion Poll ( PDF )

　Like the past two surveys, the purpose of the recent poll was to shed light on Chinese people's overall image of Japan, and basic perceptions about current China-Japan relations and their future, as comprehensively and objectively as possible to understand Chinese people's patterns of thought regarding China-Japan relations, perceptions of Japan, and changing trends to pursue accurate academic research in depth. The surveys also target observing movements in China-Japan relations from a unified perspective and to provide materials to help promote the healthy development of China-Japan relations.

　The last survey was the first in which respondents in both China and Japan used basically the same questionnaire sheets. Questions in the survey were developed considering three factors: concordance with past surveys, issues that have recently been getting a lot of attention, and use of neutral language.

　In the 2007 opinion poll of urban residents, usable responses were returned from 1,609 people spread almost equally among five cities: 455 in Beijing, 310 in Shanghai, 313 in Xian, 319 in Chengdu, and 323 in Shenyang. People surveyed were mainly men and women aged 20 and 60. There were 796 men, accounting for 49.5%, and 813 women, or 50.5%. As for educational background, about 90% were at least junior high school graduates but not university graduates (not including university graduates). Their monthly income was less than 3,000 yuan, and mainly around 1,000 to 2,000 yuan. As for political party affiliation, the Communist Party accounted for about 9%, various democratic parties 1%, and no particular party affiliation 81%. When looking at occupations, the distribution covered a wide range from senior management, freelance workers, physical laborers, retirees, laid-off workers, and unemployed persons. The top five categories were: regular workers at various companies and offices at 22.7%, retirees at 12%, self-employed at 11.9%, clerical workers at 11.5%, sole proprietors at 11.4% and service workers at 10.5%. Considering the above factors, people surveyed in the last poll are mostly citizens of lower to middle class in urban cities, with ages, vocations, and regional distributions covering a relatively wide range, so they are a good representation of the overall Chinese demographic.

　The 2007 survey of students had 1,099 usable responses. Undergraduate students accounted for 55.3% and graduate students 44.7%, with 62.3% being males and 37.7% females. Peking University, Tsinghua University, and Renmin University of China each accounted for about 27%, and China Foreign Affairs University and the School of International Studies each accounted for about 9%. Of the respondents, 38/7% were Communist Party members. The students surveyed represent the overall demographic of Chinese students in terms of school year, specialty, sex, and background.

Overall impressions of Japan and China-Japan relations

　In the last student survey, "good" and "relatively good" impressions of Japan were 4.2% and 31.1% respectively, or a combined 35.3%. Favorable impressions surged compared to a year earlier. In the survey of the general public, "good" or "relatively good" answers accounted for 24.4%, and "average" was 36.9%. "Not very good" and "very bad" answers combined for 36.5%. Again, this shows that favorable impressions of Japan are clearly on the rise compared to the previous two years.

　As for the question of "What first comes to mind when you think of Japan?" there was a slight change in answers compared to previous surveys. In both 2005 and 2006, the top answer in all surveys was the "Nanjing Massacre." In 2007, the top five answers in the student survey were: cherry blossoms (51%), Nanjing Massacre (41.9%), Yasukuni Shrine (36.6%), Imperial Japanese Army invaded China (31.6%), and electronic products (27.7%). Meanwhile, for the general public the responses were: electronic products (51.8%), Nanjing Massacre (45.3%), cherry blossoms (44.1%), Mt. Fuji (26.4%), and Imperial Japanese Army invaded China (20.4%). Cultural and economic keywords outranked some historical events for the first time in this survey.

　Regarding current China-Japan relations, students who consider them to be "very good" or "relatively good" accounted for 8.2%, a noticeable increase from 2005 and 2006 results. Students who thought they were "not very good" and "very bad" accounted for 38.9% and 5.5% respectively, dropping significantly from 2005 and 2006. Among the general public, people who answered that current China-Japan relations were "good" or "relatively good" accounted for 24.9% or up 14.5 points, and "not very good" or "very bad" 24.7% or down 16.5 points. The surveys showed that 58.9% of the Chinese general public and 49.9% of students think that China-Japan relations have made some progress over the last year.

How people perceive hot issues in China-Japan relations

　While overall impressions of China-Japan relations are clearly improving, attitudes toward specific issues have not changed.

　Among students, history issues (87.2%), territorial disputes (73.5%), and negative public sentiment (32.4%) still came to the top as specific issues in China-Japan relations, and remain major obstacles to the advancement of current China-Japan relations. Among the general public, as in the past two years, history issues (77.6%), territorial disputes (44.6%), and trade disputes (31.6%) were the top three. Japan becoming a major military power (31.1% of the general public and 31.2% of students) and other issues were also picked as major concerns.

　As for history issues, students identified school textbook issues (56.1%), a lack of remorseful attitudes toward historical events (50.1%), visits to Yasukuni Shrine (48.9%), the Nanjing Massacre (44.2%), and other subjects as top concerns. The general public ranked the Nanjing Massacre at the top (66.7%), followed by visits to Yasukuni Shrine (49.1%), school textbook issues (48.8%), and a lack of remorse or sincerity (41.6%). While 52.1% of the general public and 34.9% of students believe "history issues will settle down between China and Japan as relations develop," 42.9% of the general public and 61.6% students think "history issues won't be settled." There are no common views as for how to settle history issues.

　In terms of the economy, far more respondents (55.7% of students, 40.4% of the general public) think economic relations between the two countries are "favorable, mutually beneficial economic ties," compared to ones who considered them to be competitive (19.7% of students, 19.1% of the general public). As for people's evaluation of the Japanese economy and its international status, 29.2% of the general public think "it has grown out of a crisis and will continue playing a role as a world economic leader into the future," while 28.2% think "prospects of a Japanese economic recovery are unclear, and its economic influence will weaken." Among students, "Japan will maintain its influence as an economic powerhouse" and "its international status will take a downturn" accounted for 28.9% and 26% respectively.

　When considering political and security topics, an overwhelming percentage of students (71.8%) and the general public (60.8%) consider the Japan-U.S. alliance works "To keep the rise of China in check and to interfere with Taiwan issues." That reflects concerns about the Japan-U.S. alliance that are widely found in China as in the last two surveys. Students felt Japan was the military threat at 76.4%, followed by the U.S., India, and Russia at 69.8%, 51.9%, and 20.8%, respectively. The general public recognizes the U.S. (55.6%) and Japan (41.2%) as the largest military threats, while no other country accounts for more than 10%. Some of the reasons as to why people feel Japan is a threat are "Japan conducted wars of aggression in the past, and some Japanese are promoting the revival of militarism" (61.8% of the general public and 68.9% of students), "Japan's military capabilities are already powerful" (39.1% of students and 40.3% of the general public), "Japan is trying to reinforce its military capabilities to become a military superpower" (32.1% of the general public and 53.5% of students), and "Japan will follow a U.S. strategy" (39.4% of the general public and 34.7% of students).

　As for Japan actively trying to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, students who thought China should "support" or "support with conditions" accounted for 1.4% and 23.6% respectively. Meanwhile, students who thought their government should oppose the move totaled 69.7%. Among the general public, 43.8% thought the Chinese government "should support" (11.1%) or "should support with conditions" (32.7%), while 35.8% thought their government "should oppose" it. If Japan wants to play a much larger role in international society, many Chinese think Japan "should win further understanding and support from neighboring countries" (40.8% of the general public and 65.3% of students), followed by "should contribute as a pacifistic nation" (37.7% of the general public and 39.3% of students).

　Regarding summit meetings and private-sector exchanges, 77.9% of students "expect" or "somewhat expect" summit meetings to contribute to improved bilateral relations. In addition, 76.5% view private-sector exchanges as "important" or "somewhat important." As for the general public, 63.8% answered that they have certain expectations for summit meetings. Both students and the general public think "Japanese ways of doing things and ways of thinking" and "China's rising nationalism and anti-Japan sentiment" are major obstacles to private-sector exchanges.

　In this year's survey, 49.2% of students and 54.2% of the general public thought Chinese nationalism has grown for the last several years, while 44.7% of students and 39.4% of the general public answered that it has not changed much. As for the Chinese government's foreign policy principles, "mutual respect, nonintervention in internal affairs" won the most support (35.4% of students and 44.2% of the general public).

Understanding Japan

　In the 2007 student survey, "rising nationalism" (66.2%) was considered the most serious issue in Japan today. Meanwhile, the general public thought the "aging society" and "rebuilding of Asia relations" (34.6% and 23.1% respectively) were the top issues.

　In regard to Japan's major political inclinations, nationalism, militarism, and great-power ambition still came to the top, and expressions often used in Japan such as pacifism, liberalism, and international cooperation are not recognized much in China. When looking at events in Japanese modern history, the general public and students most recognize the "Manchurian Incident (Liutiaogou Incident), the “Second Sino-Japanese War" and "atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the U.S."

　Of all the respondents, 96.2% of students and 98.8% of the general public had never visited Japan, and 62.3% of students and 92.4% of the general public had never interacted with Japanese. Only a small number of students and the general public have close relations with Japanese friends. The Chinese news media is still the major means of learning about Japan and China-Japan relations (90.2% of students and 87.8% of the general public). The highest percentage of students get information on the Internet (64%) compared to the general public that relies on television (84.9%).

Conclusion

1．While overall impressions of Japan and China-Japan relations are clearly improving, views on specific items have not changed much.

(1) Positive changes

　The percentage of students who answered that their impressions of Japan were "very good" or "somewhat good" grew by 27.5 points from last year (35.3% / 7.8%). Among the general public, the percentage of people who said their impressions of Japan were "very good" and "somewhat good" rose by 9.9 points from last year (24.4% / 14.5%). Overall, 21.5% of students and 50.5% of the general public said their impressions of Japan had improved over the past year.

　As for current China-Japan relations, "very good" and "somewhat good" answers accounted for a combined 8.2%, with a positive outlook growing from 1.5% in 2005 and 2.9% in 2006. "Not very good" and "very bad" responses accounted for a combined 44.4%, a clear drop from 78.2% in 2005 and 70% in 2006. A total of 49.9% of students and 58.9% of the general public answered that China-Japan relations had improved to some extent over the past year.

　People's views on the future of China-Japan relations tended to be generally pessimistic in the past, but have become optimistic as 65.9% of students and 73.1% of the general public look at future China-Japanese relations "optimistically" or "somewhat optimistically." In 2005 and 2006, more than 70% of students had pessimistic views. In 2006, only 41.4% of the general public was optimistic about the future of bilateral relations.

(2) Continuity and stability

　However, the views among the general public have not changed dramatically on many specific issues. For example, results for major obstacles to China-Japan relations, recognition of settling history issues, economic relations between China and Japan, the Japan-U.S. alliance, cooperation between China and Japan in Asia, summit diplomacy and private-sector exchanges, and other issues have not changed much over the three polls, maintaining relative stability and continuity.

　Generally speaking, the survey results indicate that there is no major progress on issues involving China and Japan.

2．Positive view of economic relations, negative view of politics and security.

　China and Japan joining hands to promote regional development (60.1% of students and 65.2% of the general public) and economic and social development in each country (62.4% of students and 57.3% of the general public) gain wide support from both students and people at large. Many students and the general public also expect heads of state to work on strengthening economic ties at summit meetings (41.6% of students and 31.7% of the general public). Many students (55.7%) consider economic relations as a tool that each country can develop, however when considering that people look at Japan as the greatest military threat to China, Chinese views of Japan are far from Japan’s pacifistic self-image. The Chinese public is reserving judgment on Japan becoming a military superpower and its role in the Japan-U.S. alliance. In regard to natural resources, the percentage of students who think that "if there is a dispute, China should protect its own rights and interests" (38.7%) exceeds those who call for "cooperation through dialog" (26.3%). The poll results reflect "cold political and hot economic relations" between China and Japan to some extent.

3. Major incidents and the relation between media reporting and public views.

　Changes in the overall image of Japan illustrated in the 2007 survey are believed to stem from the three following aspects.

(1)Influence of incidents. In 2004 through 2005, China-Japan relations experienced several negative incidents. In 2006 through 2007, there were not any incidents that could have been a major blow to bilateral relations, and positive events (national leaders visiting each other) were widely publicized, contributing to a positive effect on some survey results.

(2)Influence by media. Polls in the past three years show that news media are an important source of information about Japan and China-Japan relations. In particular, around the time of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to China and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Japan, positive reporting increased in Chinese media and negative items diminished.

(3)Influence by governments. Governments of both countries have tried to improve chilly relations over the past two years. Governments taking aggressive action or restraining themselves in regard to issues that the two countries have differences in opinion have become another factor that changed the public's overall impression of the other nation.