[etc.] Report: 3rd Asian Strategy Committee

FY 2003 2nd Genron NPO Asian Strategy Conference (September 12, 2003)

Dr. C. Kenneth Quinones

On this occasion, in the work of “Discernment of Medium to Long-Term Global Trends,” the first step in the methodology of strategy-formation, we have heard from our guest speaker Dr. C. Kenneth Quinones on the theme of “The Future Course of U.S.-North Korea Relations,” with the sense of necessity for thinking through the future course of the Korean Peninsula, the closest and keenest problem facing Japan.

Dr. Quinones was for many years responsible for North Korean affairs at the U.S. Department of State, and was a central person in advancing the negotiations over the “Agreed Framework” between the United States and North Korea. His remarks today reveal that the current state of U.S.-North Korea relations is completely unpredictable.

The Bush administration—faced with falling approval ratings as the death toll rises by the day in Iraq—has softened its policy toward North Korea to some extent. Casting aside the rhetoric that North Korea should be “punished,” the administration has begun to talk of the need to take a “flexible and gradual” approach.

As the reach of this policy does not extend beyond the coming six to eight months, it cannot be considered as permanent.

During this period, if North Korea were to go ahead and carry out a nuclear test, or if President Bush acknowledges that it is necessary for his reelection, the possibility remains that the United States will launch a limited military action against North Korea.

During this time, it is necessary to advance with the “Six Party Talks” process, consolidate the “One against Five” structure, and convey in a united manner to North Korea that there is “a line that it must not cross.” The Six Party Talks should be recognized for its significance in fixing the situation at status quo, at least, and stopping it from further deterioration. By putting together a united front against North Korea, the purpose of the Six Party Talks is to disable Pyongyang from approaching Moscow or Beijing individually.

North Korea wants guarantees about its national security.

In fact, U.S. military-related personnel are currently in North Korea. While they are there, the United States cannot strike against the country (Editorial note: A team for recovering and identifying the remains of dead soldiers, from the U.S. Army Central Identification Laboratory, Hawaii (CILHI) based in Honolulu, Hawaii, is in operation in North Korea until October 27. Since they are in effect “hostages,” the United States cannot make any inadvertent moves during that period).

This very fact is functioning as a guarantee of security for North Korea.

Dr. Quinones described the “worst case scenario” he could envisage as follows.

Diplomacy collapses in the coming six to eight months. North Korea launches a nuclear test. The United States, exploring military options, and South Korea both dramatically escalate military tensions, while Japan is faced with the profound choice of whether or not it should go nuclear. Meanwhile, China and Russia establish a scheme to oppose the United States and Japan, and Northeast Asia is plunged into a state of chaos.