[talk] What is the market calling on the Koizumi administration to do?
An anonymous round table discussion about market conditions with employees of ;
A: a major metropolitan bank
B: a foreign securities firm
C: a major securities firm
|
|
The distrust concerning Koizumi's reforms that started smoldering last fall centers on the Koizumi administration's inability to proceed with the disposal of bad loans. This has been amplified by the mid-January announcement by Daiei, Inc., a major supermarket, that it would resolve its reconstruction itself through a reduction in business. Concern increased following the firing of Foreign Minister Tanaka. The market thought that replacing Tanaka would decrease the Koizumi administration's approval rating and increase the strength of those resisting structural reform. The markets are beginning to believe that Prime Minister Koizumi does not have the power to accomplish anything. This is actually a long-standing concern but now it is becoming openly known. Investors who have to sell their stocks under these conditions will not be able to find buyers and stock prices are likely to decline. In addition, the renewal of accounting systems beginning next April, the termination of the payoff system, and the release of bank stocks from cross shareholding will also cause stock prices to fall.
It is predicted that the economy will be in crisis by the end of March, but the stock price at the end of March depends on the government's actions in February. Therefore, February is a crucial period and the last chance for the Koizumi administration. But what can the Koizumi cabinet do now? Some people in the market expect nothing from Prime Minister Koizumi, but others believe if Koizumi is aware of the severity of the impending crisis, he could devise effective measures to cope with it. In any case, he cannot hesitate. Any policy plans he starts now will not convince the market. The market requires bills to have been passed already, the budget set, and policy plans that can be immediately implemented. Therefore, the purchase of bad loans by the RCC (Resolution and Collection Company) and the loan liquidation scheme attract attention. There is widespread anxiety concerning the financial system. If confidence in the financial system collapses, the entire economy will collapse. Can the Koizumi cabinet make full use of the opportunities with which it is presented?
February 22, 2002 09:25 AM
Previous entry: [interview] Prime Minister Koizumi,: Please Don't Hesitate to Change Your Policy!
Next entry: [paper] Structural Traps and Global Financial Risk



