[survey] How Thought Leaders See Japan's Strengths, Weaknesses and Strategic Imperatives

What kind of country should Japan try to become? Genron NPO has been promoting discussion on the topic of Japan's future structure and role in Asia for some time. Now we have conducted a survey of Japanese thought leaders from various sectors of society, asking them to evaluate Japan's strengths and weaknesses and indicate what areas are of the greatest strategic importance for Japan's future.

The survey was carried out simultaneously with the creation of a "strategy map" based on an assessment of Japanese power published by Genron NPO in March. The goal was to have our efforts reflect the perceptions of Japanese thought leaders. Our assessment of Japanese power is a form of introspection, a way for Japan to evaluate its current status and future potential. We hope, in presenting these self-perceptions to the public, that they will serve as catalysts for debate, deepening discussions within Japan and with other Asian thought leaders and eliciting suggestions toward shaping a national strategy that can guide Japan's future development.

Taking into consideration the evaluation of Japan's strengths and weaknesses, this survey focused on nine areas: (1) economy, (2) politics, (3) popular culture, (4) society and education, (5) science and technology, (6) defense and military, (7) natural resources (food, energy), (8) environment, (9) ideas and public discourse. In each area, respondents were asked to assess how Japan compares to other nations in three aspects, selecting in each case whether they considered Japan to be "dominant," "moderately strong" or "weak." Those three aspects are:

A. "Forwardness" - This aspect rates how advanced Japan's stage of development is in each of the nine areas; how sophisticated, diversified, cutting-edge and broad-based the nation's activities are in that area.

B. "Robustness" - This aspect rates the degree to which Japan possesses "depth" in each respective area, such as ample real-world experience, adaptability, diversification and resistance to "force majeur" (disasters like earthquakes or terrorist attacks).

C. "Influence" - This aspect rates how much international influence Japan exerts in a given area, in terms of the nation's degree of initiative in identifying and solving problems, brand power, the weight carried in the international community by Japan's approval, and the ability to set trends in motion.

Respondents were asked to rate the degree of strategic importance of each aspect of each of the nine areas. Two hundred Japanese intellectuals, experts, and opinion leaders responded to the survey.

The results are summarized below.

Japan is dominant in the environment, economy, science and technology, and popular culture—four areas of forwardness.

(1) Respondents indicated that Japan shows forwardness in four areas: environment, economy, science and technology and popular culture. They felt that Japan can be confident of its strength in these areas. And among these they regard the economy and environment as the most strategically important.

(2) In contrast, fields that were considered strategically important to Japan's future but in which Japan is weak relative to other countries include food (in forwardness, robustness, influence), energy (in robustness, influence), politics (in forwardness), ideas and public discourse (in forwardness, robustness), and military (in robustness). As far as the food and energy fields are concerned, respondents did not regard the problem as being Japan's low degree of self-sufficiency in both per se, but rather the lack of strategic attention to these longstanding weaknesses and of clear policies to address them, as well as poor negotiating leverage in food-related trade, and the absence of leadership on resource issues. They expressed hope for a restructured Japanese agricultural sector that is efficient enough to eliminate dependence on imports.

(3) Many respondents asserted that the environment is a strategic area for the future of Japan, and that the nation should use its strengths in this area to exercise leadership by solving global environmental problems and moving toward an ecologically sustainable society.

(4) Japanese politics were regarded as weak in all aspects: forwardness, robustness and influence. But only forwardness was regarded as strategically important. This made clear that there is a deep sense of resignation about politicians and political parties, but also frustration with the underlying lack of political consciousness and political engagement among voters, who are ultimately the only hope for bringing about change.

(5) One striking result was the low strategic importance assigned to Japan's forwardness and influence in the defense and military area, even as robustness in this area was considered of great strategic importance. At the same time, robustness was assessed to be the weakest aspect of defense by many respondents, due to the constraints on Japan's defense activities imposed by the constitution. This reflects an awareness that Japan must make it a strategic priority to revise the constitution and become a "full-fledged country."

(6)The most popular responses in the survey were the assessment of ideas and public discourse as an area of weakness, yet high strategic importance. There was a tremendous sense that dialogue between public officials and citizens about policy is limp and that the news media make little contribution to it. These are the very reasons why Genron NPO was created: to bridge the "discourse deficit." Nearly half of respondents agreed that a wider variety of channels for the flow of information are needed, that the quality of journalism must be improved, and that multiple, overlapping intellectual networks must be formed.

Below is a comparison of two "strategy maps," one reflecting a "self-perception" of Japan in the eyes of the nation's thought leaders, based on the opinion survey, and another addressing the same issues prepared simultaneously by Genron NPO's own internal committee of experts. A number of key points are highlighted.

Here we offer Genron NPO's strategy map and a strategy map based on survey results (pdf:128K)

How Thought Leaders See Japan's Strengths, Weaknesses and Strategic Imperatives

1. What are Japan's most strategic areas?

What's important to focus on in the strategic maps are aspects of areas regarded as strategically important in which Japan is also "dominant." One of the main goals of this project is to spark discussion of what an "ideal but feasible" identity for Japan might be based on these key elements. Genron NPO's in-house analysis identified influence of popular culture, forwardness in science and technology and robustness of the economy as Japan's key elements. On this point, though, the survey of thought leaders chose two different ones: forwardness in both environment and economy.

Other elements were regarded as of great strategic importance but only moderate strength for Japan. Reinforcing these elements to bring them into the category of key strategic factors, like those above, must be a pillar of any Japanese national strategy. In Genron NPO's own analysis, these elements were economic forwardness, robustness of science and technology, military forwardness, and robustness of ideas and public discourse. In contrast, survey respondents identified robustness and influence in the area of the environment and forwardness in energy resources.

Overall, while Genron NPO's analysis emphasized science and technology, the economy and popular culture, many survey respondents considered the environment to be the key field for Japan's national strategy.

Prioritizing global environmental problems

While Genron NPO's in-house analysis did not deny the strategic importance of the environment, it was not assigned a high priority in the context of "creating an appealing Japan." But in the survey, there was much agreement (37% of respondents) with the statement, "Because the world must urgently address global environmental problems, the environment is automatically of great strategic importance. Japan, having tackled its pollution problems at an early stage, is a 'trailblazer' country and must take a corresponding leadership role on behalf of humanity and the earth, making it a key plank of the national strategy." Also winning much approval (22% of respondents) was the statement, "Japan has a particular genius for coexisting harmoniously with nature and developing appreciation for natural beauty, so it is extremely important to make the environment a core element of national identity."

Many thought leaders are convinced that global environmental problems pose a serious threat, and thus attach great strategic importance to Japan putting its strength in environmental matters to work.

In addition to Japan's "forwardness" in the areas of environment and economy cited above, survey results showed a belief that Japan is "dominant" in popular culture and science and technology, but that these two are of only middling strategic importance. The bottom line is that these four areas were widely regarded with self-confidence.

2. Areas of intense concern

The survey results showed nine elements clustered in the lower right portion of the strategy map, indicating strategically important areas where Japan is relatively weak. The thought leaders who responded harbor grave disquiet and dissatisfaction with these elements. They fall under the areas of food and energy resources, ideas and public discourse and politics.

(1) Food (all aspects: forwardness, robustness, and influence)

On the survey, responses clustered around the following two perspectives concerning strategic importance, indicating that they reflect the concerns of many thought leaders.

A stable food supply is the basis of security

The first choice, accounting for 35% of responses, was the statement "It is not just that Japan's food self-sufficiency has fallen to 40%, but the lack of vision with respect to the food self-sufficiency ratio (forwardness), of leverage in food trade negotiating (robustness) and of leadership in food resource issues (influence) that are the essence of Japan's weakness in this area. Japan must grasp that stability of food supply is a prerequisite for national security and give a higher level of strategic importance to the issue."

(2) Energy resources (robustness and influence)

The deep concern felt by Japan's thought leaders about this sector is reflected in the large number of respondents (26%) agreeing with the statement, "The essence of Japan's energy problem is excessive dependence on foreign (especially Middle Eastern) imports for oil and other energy. As long as self-sufficiency in energy remains so abysmally low, this will be a major strategic concern for Japan."

As for robustness in this area, respondents worry about Japan's negotiating leverage for securing resources in the international marketplace; 26% of them selected, "As competition among nations for geological resources intensifies, Japan must strengthen its strategy for securing energy resources by diversifying suppliers, pursuing develop-and-import schemes from the drilling stage forward, offering profit opportunities in Japan to Middle Eastern capital, and improving negotiating tactics."

And with regard to influence, along with strengthening Japan's muscle in global markets, there is a feeling that "Japan's strategy must exploit its strength in world-class energy-saving technologies as demand for conservation grows in the US and other countries."

Japan was assessed to have moderate strength in terms of energy forwardness, but 26% of respondents affirmed its strategic importance, agreeing that "Japan should apply its advanced technology to accelerating the switch toward alternative energy sources. By setting the pace for the world in establishing a sustainable energy basis for society, Japan can establish itself as the world's leading environmental power. To achieve this, Japan must establish public consensus about the country's path that includes a willingness to accept the trade-off of possibly higher energy prices, at least for the time being."

Genron NPO's own analysis, while not denying the strategic importance of energy resources, did not assign a high priority to this field within the framework of "creating an attractive Japan." While the Genron NPO view is reflected in the statement, "While a supply crunch that raised energy prices would make a switch to alternative energy viable from a cost perspective and promote a shift, as long as Japan retains its technological advantage, the market mechanism will have no difficulty meeting energy needs," this statement won the agreement of just 5% of survey respondents.

(3) Ideas and public discourse (forwardness and robustness)

The following response was the choice of almost half (45%) of survey respondents. Clearly, Japan's thought leaders are gravely concerned about the weakness of ideas and public discourse in Japan and see the need for this area to be strengthened.

A need for more constructive and profound public discourse

This was the statement: "Japan, facing an era of change, must pursue reforms that will restructure its entire national system and recover a meaningful role in world affairs. This task demands clearly expressed ideals and concepts, which will not materialize unless public discourse becomes more constructive and profound. Today, the policy debates within and between political parties and between officials and the public lack vibrancy. Think tanks are underdeveloped, NPOs and other citizen groups fail to have much impact on policy formation, and the news media make little contribution to policy dialogue. It was exactly this "discourse deficit" and "inarticulateness"Å@that Genron NPO was formed to address. Japan urgently needs a wider variety of information channels, improvement in the quality of journalism, and the formation of multiple, overlapping intellectual networks.

It can also be said, as 20% of respondents indicated, that "To achieve clear communication and mutual understanding with other Asian countries and the international community as a whole, it is of great strategic importance for Japan to overcome its present weaknesses in effective and persuasive use of language." On the whole, these positions reflect no significant differences with Genron NPO's analysis.

3. Implications of politics assessment

The area of politics received "weak" ratings in all three aspects: forwardness, robustness, and influence. More than half of respondents (51%) pointed to the attitudes of citizens and voters, more than politics itself, as the problem. Many thought leaders took the view that "The effectiveness of politics is decided by the political awareness and engagement and the civic consciousness of citizens and voters more than by politicians or policy. At the current time, when Japan faces its most pressing need for reform since the Meiji Restoration, awareness and readiness on the part of Japan's citizens is desperately needed."

Resignation about politics, frustration with voters

On this point, there is a split between assessments of the forwardness of Japanese politics, an element regarded as strategically important but weak (lower right of the map) and the area's robustness and influence, which are also seen as weak but not strategically important (lower left of the map). These results reflect a focus on citizens as the root of the weakness seen in Japanese politics. While being resigned to the state of affairs with politicians and party politics, Japan's thought leaders are frustrated with the lack of political consciousness among voters to effect change.

4. Implications of society and education assessment

In the area of society and education, Japan is seen as being moderately strong in both forwardness and robustness, but forwardness here is assigned low strategic significance and robustness is not considered all that important either. As for the influence of society and education, it is seen as particularly weak and also strategically unimportant (lower left of the map).

Traditionally the area of society and education has been a Japanese strength. A cooperative spirit within groups, a high level of uniformity, a tendency to emphasize trust-based interpersonal relationships and a very meritocratic educational system has been pillars of the nation's past successes. But as many respondents to the survey see it, globalization is inexorably dismantling the "closed society" that was the basis for these strengths. As income disparities rise, shifting morals threaten values such as the work ethic, and the quality of education deteriorates, what was once an area of strength for Japan is becoming one of weakness. The above results suggest that this transition has left respondents hesitant and perplexed about how to evaluate the status and strategic importance of this area. Responses were all over the map, and no single trend was discernable. The placement of Japan's social and educational influence in the bottom left of the map may reflect a perception that it will be difficult for Japan, amidst all this uncertainty, to build a more appealing image of its society throughout the world.

As for Genron NPO's own analysis, it regards influence in this area as possessing strategic importance. In particular, we place a significant emphasis on restructuring society to enable people with diverse capabilities to flourish. While acknowledging that the great strength of Japan's social legacy still lingers, it does not play a part in our strategic priorities.

5. Differing assessments of science and technolog

Many thought leaders took the position that while Japan enjoys "dominance" in scientific and technological forwardness, the strategic importance of this factor is not all that great. This is a significant difference from Genron NPO's analysis, which regards all aspects of the science and technology area as having great strategic importance.

Genron NPO's analysis asserts that Japan should continue to exploit its strong forwardness and robustness in science and technology, accumulating world-beating experience in solving cutting-edge problems in the process. This will build the influence necessary to attract top researchers from around the world, who will establish the nation's leadership in this area far into the future and secure Japan's place in the world as an alluring "science and technology power." Our analysis rests on a presumption that the new technologies cultivated during the recession of the 1990s will bear fruit around 2010, catapulting Japan from the "catch-up phase" to the "discovery and invention" phase.

On the importance of securing human resources in the science and technology field

In contrast, many Japanese thought leaders focused their attention on the deterioration of the human resources that underpin science and technology and declining motivation among them. Indeed, 34% of respondents agreed that "The strategy Japan really needs is one that takes the country towards a society and education system that nurtures and secures human capital." Another large segment (22%) focused instead on weakness in the management systems that convert technology into profitability, agreeing that "The real strategic question is how to overcome problems with corporate governance and management systems that are outside the science and technology field itself." These perceptions differ from Genron NPO's own conclusions.

6. Assessment of the economy

With respect to Japan's economy, both Genron NPO's analysis and the survey results generally agreed, despite differing emphasis on some points, that this is an area of no small strategic importance, and one in which Japan is fairly strong. But while Genron NPO sees Japan's economy as being "dominant" in terms of robustness and only "moderately strong" in its forwardness, the survey results reversed those evaluations. It is certainly easy to regard the stagnation of the 1990s and the slowness of structural reform despite the Japanese economy's latent strength as indicators of weakness in terms of economic robustness. But in Genron NPO's analysis, "forwardness" is assessed from the perspective of strength or weakness ascribable to policy and corporate management on the basis of their record of problem-solving. By attributing the latent strength of Japan's economy, which is the object of the strategy, to its robustness, we wished to highlight the strategic implications of this latent strength. This accounts for the difference from the survey results.

The necessity for structural reform leading to true openness

The respondents were split on this point, but a slightly larger number of thought leaders (24%) agreed that "As Japan confronts an aging and shrinking population, it must overcome long-term stagnation by ceaseless innovation to raise productivity or attract industrial activities from abroad by increasing the nation's attractiveness. This will require enacting structural reforms that create a more competitive and compelling business environment and a society that is truly open to the world." But almost as many (22%) expressed great reservations about the growing polarization of the economy and the collapse of the exceptionally broad and uniform middle class social system that sustained Japan's economy for decades, as well as fear that these developments will sap the nation's economic strength. This group agreed with the statement, "An overall vision or consensus about what Japanese society should look like is required."

7. Assessment of defense and military

Both the survey and Genron NPO's own analysis concluded that while Japan enjoys moderate strength of forwardness in the defense and military area, it is weak in robustness and influence. Moreover, this lack of robustness is an important strategic problem. What differed between the two reports' conclusions is that while Genron NPO's analysis regarded it as vital to have military forwardness, survey respondents thought the opposite. Genron NPO took the position that Japan needs to become a "known quantity" as a country within the evolving Asian security framework. The survey results, however, revealed that almost 30% of respondents agreed that "The problem with Japan's defense forces is that they are limited in their flexibility of action by being restricted to self-defense. This makes them incapable of responding adequately to threats. It is not in Japan's national interest to be constrained to follow the lead of the US in foreign policy and management of the economy by the framework of the US-Japan Security Treaty. To escape this situation, it is strategically vital for Japan to revise the constitution, which is at the root of the problem, and become a full-fledged nation capable of defending itself." This is the point of contention with respect to robustness in the area of defense.

As in our previous surveys, these results highlight the high degree of interest in the constitutional problem among Japan's thought leaders.

8. Assessment of popular culture

Both the survey results and Genron NPO's analysis reveal roughly the same assessment of the strength of Japan's popular culture, but the survey reveals that many of Japan's thought leaders do not assign this area much strategic weight. This trend was demonstrated by the significant support received by the following two propositions.

Culture is not a matter of strategy

The statement "Rather than popular culture, which evolves naturally, the targets for an ongoing policy supporting preservation and development should be arts (music, fine arts, performing arts, etc.) which have great cultural value but a small market and which lack commercial appeal. The foundation of Japan's strength in the arts is high artistic and technical skills. Japan's strategic emphasis should be placed on these forms of culture." was affirmed by 27% of respondents.

Another 22% agreed that "The strength and influence of Japanese popular culture are a result of natural development. As a matter of principle, culture is not a field which should be part of a national strategy."

Genron NPO's own analysis does not propose to incorporate popular culture into Japan's national strategy either, but it does regard it as having dominant influence and acknowledges its strategic potential in "creating an appealing Japan." Our assignment of strategic importance to popular culture is an attempt to provoke fresh thinking about this area.

By publicizing the two "strategy maps" resulting from our own analysis and our survey of thought leaders, Genron NPO aims to stimulate debate around assessments of Japan's power. We hope that this will lead into a larger dialogue about Japan's identity, which will feed back into our own efforts and push forward a discussion of the choices facing Japan concerning the future.