[talk] Will the Structural Reforms of the Koizumi Administration Succeed?

Nobuyuki Saji: Chief Economist, Mizuho Securities

Second rank in the Institutional Investor, The All-Asia Research Team Ranking. Born in 1958. Graduated from Kansai Gakuin University Legal Studies Department. After a stint at Nikko Research Center Investment Strategy Director, he took on his present duties. Publications include The Japanese Economy Read by the 'Economic Cycles'(Keiki Junkan De Yomu Nihon Keizai) (co-author).

Robert Feldman: Chief Economist of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Securities

First ranking in the Institutional Investor, The All-Asia Research Team Poll. Born in 1953. Graduated from Yale University and received Ph.D. from MIT (in Economics). Held positions in the New York Federal Reserve and the IMF before taking up present position. Publications include The Vulnerability of Japan(Nihon No Suijaku) and The Revitalization of Japan(Nihon No Saiki).

How is the Koizumi administration going to conquer the difficult issue of structural reform while the economy stagnates?

Is there a strategy written to combat this issue? Or will it be impossible to overcome the old forces with the reforms to end in submission? Two popular economists debate over the whereabouts of the Koizumi reforms.

The main issues are as follows.

1. The Elements of the Japanese Economic Stagnation
2. How are the Bone Strengthening Guidelines to be evaluated.
3. Will the Koizumi reforms become a repeat of the Hashimoto reforms?
4. Have the policies for non-performing assets receded?
5. Can the financial system reforms be realized based on the self sufficiency of the private sector?
6. Is the strategy for the Koizumi reforms mapped out?
7. How do we consider the debate that policies for the stagnating economy are necessary?
8. Will there be an economic crisis after the Upper House elections?
9. Will the Koizumi reforms be like Thatcher's or like Gorbachev's?