Yasushi Kudo’s Opinion Poll Analysis: Part3 – Separate Reasons Causing the Gap in Support Between Government Officials and Members of the Media

In addition to the question about support for Shinzo Abe’s government, we included the following 3 questions:

1.) Can you discern what policies the government in pursuing?
2.) What role do you expect of Shinzo Abe’s government?
3.) Can you expect Shinzo Abe’s government to perform the role you expect of it?

We added these questions to the one concerning respondents’ support for Shinzo Abe’s government and then analyzed them, so that we could gain a clearer picture of respondents’ current perceptions of the government.

On this occasion all groups of respondent’s shared a common opinion regarding question 1; Can you discern what policies the government is pursing? Even after 100 days had passed, respondents overwhelmingly chose “I can’t”. A total of 69.4% chose “I can’t” and even if looked at separately this figure for each group of respondents remains at the same level.

However, what policies should Shinzo Abe’s government be pursing? In response to this question the majority suggested structural reforms. In total, less than 1 in 10 of respondents answered that the structural reform system should be revised.

On this occasion we found that amongst respondents, who work close to the source of political decision and students, who are interested in political discourse, a consensus is forming regarding former Prime Minister Koizumi’s structural reforms. In fact, whilst people demanded the continuation of structural reforms, a shift in interest from rectifying residual problems of Koizumi’s reforms and radical structural reforms is starting to take place. Instead, interest is moving towards new policies for productive structural reforms.

The number of respondents choosing to “continue Koizumi’s structural reforms” was in total 14.6%. Only 6% of the media chose this option. In contrast, the amount of people expecting that even if Shinzo Abe’s government pursues Koizumi’s structural reforms it should also “rectify the perversions” reached a total of 37.4% and constituted the largest group. The next largest group with 32.6% chose “Move from radical structural reforms to new productive structural reforms.” Respondents from the media (41.0%) and government officials (42.0%) choosing “rectify the perversions” both surpassed the 40% mark.

However, all groups of respondents at this point are still very skeptical as to whether Shinzo Abe’s government can realize the expectations respondents have of it. Looking at all groups of respondents as a whole, no more than 12.3% chose “I can expect this”, 35.7% chose “I can’t expect this”, 18.9% chose “I don’t know” and 25.1% did not reply.

So, a large number of respondents cannot discern what policies Shinzo Abe’s government is pursuing. Or rather, not only can they not discern what policies the government is pursuing, they also do not trust the government to fulfill the role that they are asking of it or expect that it should be playing. This is the basic perception that many respondents have of Shinzo Abe’s government after 100 days.

This state of affairs can certainly not be dismissed as a trifling problem. The fact that members of the media, government officials etc do not understand what policies the government is pursuing can only mean that the government is being sluggish in its attempts to gain the Japanese people’s consent.

If we further cross-analyze the questions so far, then a certain interesting tendency regarding perceptions of the current state of the government stands out. This has to do with the change in the support for Shinzo Abe’s government and the expectations that people have of it 100 days after its inauguration. Particularly if we restrict this to the government officials and the media, whose perceptions of Shinzo Abe’s government are at striking odds with the general tendency, then we can see that the disparity in support from each of these respondent groups has its own different contributive cause.

As explained earlier 44% of government officials polled support Shinzo Abe’s government, 12% do not and 44% neither support nor oppose the government. Of those who answered “Don’t support” or “Neither support nor oppose”, almost half of them chose that Shizo Abe’s government’s first 100 days had “fallen short of expectations”, showing that the disappointment with the government’s policies and handling of certain issues has had an effect on government officials support for and opposition to the present government.

In contrast, the perception of members of the media is greatly different. With only 11%, supporters of the government amongst members of the media was the lowest and of the 62% claiming they did not support the government, more than 60% of them had “no expectations [of the government] from the start.” 27% of those non-supporters chose “fallen short of expectations” which means, to put it strongly, double this number of members of the media had already decided that they didn’t support the government before it had even entered into power.

If compared with other groups of respondents, then the 48% of the media choosing “I had no expectations of the government from the start” is striking but, once 100 days had passed none of this group of members of the media were in support of the government. This is to say that not only did Shinzo Abe’s government’s first 100 days fail to change the negative view point of the media but moreover, whilst witnessing a drop in support, the number of members of the media opposing the government is also increasing.

It is difficult to discern with the results of this opinion poll alone, why almost 50% of representatives of the media had chosen “I had no expectations of the government from the start.”

However, to a certain degree I can discern what sort of opinions these people have. For example, Almost 70% of those replying “I had no expectations of the government from the start” chose either “Move from radical structural reforms to new productive structural reforms" or “rectify the perversions” in response to roles they expected of Shinzo Abe’s government. Also, most of these people answered that they can not expect the government to achieve this. Of those who had “no expectations of the government from the start” only one person chose “continue Koizumi’s radical reforms.”

Shinzo Abe’s first 100 days were not able to reverse these negative expectations and impressions.

The reasons for this are currently being published on Genron NPO’s website in the form of individual respondent’s comments. If you take a look at those in conjunction to this then you will be able to better understand the views and opinions of the respondents.

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