Yasushi Kudo’s Opinion Poll Analysis: Part4 – Final Installment

First, in order to conduct a general assessment of Shinzo Abe’s government’s first 100 days, we asked respondents to score the following 7 areas. The first 3 dealt with Shinzo Abe’s personality and competence as a leader:
1. The Prime Minister’s personality
2. The Prime Minister’s leadership and political prowess
3. Level of appeal and ability to explain his policies to the public
and then the remaining 4 dealt with Shinzo Abe’s government’s policies:
4. The basic ideas and goals that the government should realize
5. The development of policies that the government has drawn up
6. The achievements or results of the government’s policies so far
7. The system and team supporting Shinzo Abe’s government

Looking at all the results, the only point on which the government was assessed positively was “The Prime Minister’s Personality.” Almost half (46.6%) of respondents answered “good” or “quite good”. However, on all other points the assessments were negative. More so than policy related problems, the Prime Minister’s quality as a leader and his way of structuring the government including the selection of his team received particularly low ratings.

Points on which the government received particularly low assessments were “The Prime Minister’s leadership and political prowess” (62.9%), “The system and team supporting Shinzo Abe’s government” (64.3%) and “Level of appeal and ability to explain his policies to the public” (76.6%). On each of these points over 60% of respondents assessed the government negatively by selecting either “bad” or “quite bad”.

When we look at each group of respondents separately, we see that the above assessment was particularly frequent amongst the members of the media. The number of respondents selecting “bad” or “quite bad” for the point “Level of appeal and ability to explain his policies to the public” stood out at 87.0%, and for “The system and team supporting Shinzo Abe’s government” the number reached a striking 85.0%.

When we look at the relation between these assessments of Shinzo Abe’s government and the level of support for it, then the following characteristics can be seen.

First of all, in order to gain “support” then you must at least have people’s esteem for your personality. However, this alone is not enough. Of the people, who selected “I support” Shinzo Abe’s government all of them chose the option “average” or above regarding Shinzo Abe’s personality. However, of those who chose “average” or above regarding Shinzo Abe’s personality, over 60% of them still chose “I don’t support” Shinzo Abe’s government.

So what was the relation between level of support and respondents’ general assessment of the government? Firstly, looking at the government officials the relation between the assessment of each point and the level of support for the government was quite tenuous. Even though respondents from this group assessed various points as “bad” or “quite bad”, there still was a large number of people selecting “I support” the government.

This tendency was strong, especially in the following 3 points, “The Prime Minister’s leadership and political prowess”, “Level of appeal and ability to explain his policies to the public” and “The system and team supporting Shinzo Abe’s government.” Many government officials still answered that they supported the government, although they were dissatisfied with the government’s performance in these 3 points.

In contrast, amongst the members of the media, the relation between support or opposition and the assessment of the individual points was strong. 90% of representatives of the media who did not support the government assessed it as “bad” or “quite bad” in regard to the afore-mentioned 3 points. This tendency was not restricted to the media alone, but was also evident amongst the well-informed group of respondents.

Genron NPO plotted these results on radar charts using a five point assessment scale and then published them on its website. The mean of all the results was 2.2 points.

Next we asked respondents to assess 18 individual policies and issues the government had adopted or dealt with during its first 100 days. These included amongst others, ①The selection of cabinet ministers and assistants, ②The educational reform, ③The nation and its regions, ④Diplomatic relations within Asia and ⑤Creation of a core leadership team. In this case respondents could assess each policy or issue positively by choosing “appropriate” or “expect it to improve” or negatively by choosing “expect no improvement”.

Looking at the results as a whole, positive assessments that stood out were foreign policy, particularly diplomacy in Asia, which over 70% of respondents assessed positively. In contrast, besides “Economic Growth” all other domestic policy areas received negative assessments one after the other. Especially in such areas as the “Postal rebels’ return to the LDP” and the “Town Meetings” etc. the number of respondents choosing “Expect no improvement” passed 60% in each case. These points which had been dogged by public criticism all received particularly negative assessments.

In the case of government administration, it is often said to be relatively easy to cover up the previous government’s weak points, yet difficult to maintain and build on its plus points. With this in mind, the previous government’s weak point was diplomacy in Asia. Immediately after his inauguration, Shinzo Abe visited China on October 8th to have a Sino-Japanese summit meeting for the first time in five years. This is reflected in the high evaluations in our opinion poll vis-à-vis general foreign policy.

In contrast, the assessments of Shinzo Abe’s domestic policies were uniformly harsh across the board. On top of the individual 18 policies and issues the government had dealt with, we asked respondents specifically about the postal rebels’ readmission into the LDP, road construction revenue issues, and issues concerning the creation of a core leadership team. The assessments of these 3 issues and for that matter for the 18 individual policies, were all the same. That is to say negative assessments were numerous.

Looking at each group of respondents individually, the disparity between the critical media, the group of well-informed and the government officials, who are still holding out for an improvement, is striking. Besides points related to diplomacy in Asia and economic growth, over half of the media selected “expect no improvement” for 13 different policies and issues. In contrast to this, only in 3 points concerning the policy making organ, “The Prime Minister’s personality”, “creation of a core leadership team” and “postal rebels’ return to the LDP”, did 50% of government officials choose “expect no improvements.” However, in response to 11 other policies and issues concerning domestic and foreign affairs, the number of government officials choosing “appropriate” or “expect it to improve” surpassed the number selecting “expect no improvements.”

So are the media being too harsh on the government? Or, are the opinions of the government officials, working in close proximity to the source of political decision, reasonable? This is not something that we can debate now, but roughly speaking, the tendencies appear to be symmetrical. The well-informed group of respondents’ assessment of the government is close to that of the media and conversely, that of the students is close to the government officials’ assessment of Shinzo Abe’s government.

How does this assessment of individual policies and issues reflect in the level of support for Shinzo Abe’s government? Of those amongst the media, who answered, “expect no improvement”, most of them did not support the government. Conversely, looking at the government officials, who chose “support” or “don’t support” and then the results of their assessments of the government’s individual policies and issues, there seems to be no direct connection.

During its first 100 days, Shinzo Abe’s government dealt with various issues pertaining to domestic and foreign affairs. However, what emerged from this opinion poll was that many respondents had no idea what aims or visions the government has. Further, it would seem that respondent’s trust is yet to be gained for the firm leadership and system responsible for realizing these aims.

Koizumi’s administration, whose policies Abe’s government has inherited, was one defined by its reformative stance. It was also one, which overcame the rejection of its postal reform bill via a snap general election, and was hence able to build a stable political basis. Shinzo Abe’s government, however, is one that was inaugurated without a base of trust gained from the Japanese people.

Even though Shinzo Abe’s government inherited the policies of its predecessor, the public has caught glimpses of government administrative mistakes such as the town meetings, postal rebels’ readmission into the LDP and road construction revenue issues. They have also glimpsed examples of a shaky government with a haphazard reformative stance. The impression that is setting in is one of a government, whose organization and political position both remain unsure.

Obviously Shinzo Abe did not think he would be subjected to an assessment after only 100 days. And yet, the eyes of the electorate have been very critical. If Shinzo Abe’s government acknowledging this fact, then this will assure that our opinion poll was a success. How will Shinzo Abe’s government get to grips with the issues that were raised in our opinion poll before the election of the House of Councilors? What will be reflected in the policies that are made from now on and how?

If this is not made clear, then our assessment of Shinzo Abe’s government, which we shall complete prior to the election of the House of Councilors in July, is likely to become all the more critical.

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